What Price US Protection? A Question S. Korea's President Will Face in Summit With Trump

The pressure is on not just payment for American forces based in the country, but also changes in their deployment in the event of a conflict with China.

- Denny Roy

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung faces a daunting challenge as he prepares for his first in-person meeting with Donald Trump on Aug 25: How to reshape a security alliance that both are unhappy with without paying too steep a price?

At the upcoming summit in Washington, Mr. Lee will undertake a geopolitical high-wire act, trying to stay the course while buffeted by cross-cutting winds from the US President as well as China. He has to be careful of local tempests as well, given the deep political divisions within South Korea.

In dealing with the famously volatile and transactional Mr. Trump, Mr. Lee can expect to face two different sorts of pressures—on trade and on security.

The reset of bilateral economic relations appears close to being settled. But the discussion of making changes in the alliance relationship, long dreaded by South Koreans, is just beginning, and will likely dominate the Trump-Lee summit.

UNPLEASANT TRADE SURPRISES ARE UNLIKELY

In late July, Seoul seemingly reached an economic peace agreement to extract itself from Mr. Trump's tariff war. Yet there is still no written agreement, and many of the details are disputed.

Trump administration officials said, for example, that Seoul agreed to be "completely open" to US imports, including "agriculture," and would "give to the United States US$350 billion (S$450 billion) for investments," from which Americans would take 90 per cent of the profits. South Korean government officials responded that they did not even discuss, let alone make any concessions, over the politically sensitive issues of US rice and beef imports, and that the 90 per cent profit claim "does not make sense."