Vladimir Putin: The indispensable weak Russian leader

The Wagner insurrection may have exposed the Russian President's vulnerability, but regime change is not necessarily in the West's interests.

- Jonathan Eyal

Although short-lived, the recent mutiny by the Wagner Group against Russian President Vladimir Putin was, without doubt, the most severe political jolt felt by Russia's ruling class in a generation.

In less than one day, the man who ruled Russia unopposed since the turn of the century and seemed set to continue ruling it well into the 2030s suddenly seemed vulnerable and scared. And a vast country ruled from Moscow with an iron fist appeared to be on the brink of civil war.

But what is also notable about the episode is the response or lack of from Western governments as these spectacular events unfolded in Russia.

"It's still too early to reach a definitive conclusion about where this is going," United States President Joe Biden said immediately after the mutiny. "The overall outcome of this remains to be seen," he added in words replicated by European leaders.

This "little-to-see here" attitude was not because Western governments are traditionally shy about commenting on Russia's domestic affairs. Nor was it because people were caught by surprise; Western intelligence agencies warned their leaders well in advance that a rebellion was about to unfold in Russia.

Instead, the silence was due to one chief consideration: a fear shared in most Western capitals about what may happen should a nuclear-armed Russia descend into internal violence, coupled with apprehension about who could gain power should Mr Putin be removed from office.

Strangely, therefore, just as the Russian President was facing his most vulnerable moment at home, his position was at its strongest overseas, where he is still seen as the indispensable Russian leader, if only because - to paraphrase the old saying he is the "devil" everyone knows.