US peace plan spells bad news for Ukraine in war with Russia

It amounts to a sell-out of Kyiv’s security interests, and may also marginalise Europe

- Jonathan Eyal Global Affairs Correspondent

“Our teams — Ukraine and the USA - will work on the points of the plan to end the war. We are ready for constructive, honest and prompt work,” Mr Zelensky wrote in a message he posted on social media during the early hours of Nov 21.

Yet beyond the public image of calm and readiness to talk, the Ukrainians and their European allies are severely shaken by the contents of the US proposal. For if implemented, it not only will amount to a complete US sellout of Ukraine’s security interests, but may also marginalise Europe in Washington's security priorities.

Several versions of the US plan are currently circulating. But all seem to spell bad news for Ukraine.

The plan apparently envisions an international recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russian troops seized in 2014; until now, almost no country in the world has recognised this seizure of territory.

In return for a ceasefire, the Ukrainians will also be asked to abandon their vast and mineral-rich Donbas region to Russia; currently, the Russians have struggled to occupy and hold bits of that province. In addition, Ukraine would have to withdraw entirely from the contested territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, and other parts of Ukraine fighting against Russian occupation.

More serious still are the military restrictions Ukraine is asked to accept. If it signs the deal proposed by the US, the size of Ukraine’s armed forces will be limited to 600,000 troops in a nation of around 37 million. An international treaty will specify that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato, the US-led military alliance in Europe. Western troops will also be banned from being stationed on Ukrainian territory.

In return, Ukraine will get a Russian “nonaggression agreement” and a US “security guarantee”, although neither one of these concepts is defined in the US plan.