Trust in US data on the line with recent Trump firing

Past examples from other countries show credibility is easily lost and hard to restore

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WASHINGTON - US President Donald Trump's move to fire the head of the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) has put trust in US data reporting mechanisms on the line, just as demand for reliable diagnoses of the health of the world's largest economy is bigger than ever.

Examples from elsewhere show credibility is easily lost and hard to restore.

A first test will be the choice to replace Ms Erika McEntarfer, accused without evidence by Mr Trump of manipulating job numbers in the US after weaker-than-expected growth and large downward revisions were reported last week.

"Imagine if one of your concerns is that there's a lackey in charge of the agency and the numbers are fake," said Mr Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, of an appointment Mr Trump has said to expect within days.

"That's a whole other level of problems."

Policymakers, businesses and investors are scrambling to understand how Mr Trump's attempt to upend the global trade system will affect prices, employment and household wealth.

Central banks, which once tried to guide market bets on rate moves months down the line, now say decisions are "data-dependent".

The rub is that data collection is proving to be harder.

Debt-laden governments have, as Ms McEntarfer experienced, cut resources in their data departments; phone surveys - the go-to method for much macro research - are struggling to produce adequate samples as many households do without fixed lines.