Trump's Tariffs Are Starting to Hammer Chinese Exporters

But plenty of them still hope that the US President will soon cave in.

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To look out on Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, the busiest port in the world by cargo throughput, you would not know there is a trade war going on. Security around Chinese ports is tight, but from a wooded hill overlooking one of its giant terminals, it feels as though it is just another normal working day. Lines of trucks steadily snake into the port, bringing in red, grey and green containers. Forklift operators scoot around, stacking them up in towers. Most of the dozens of towering gantry cranes in the terminal are in operation, loading the containers onto ships. A huge vessel, packed with cargo, sails out of the harbour into the Pacific Ocean.

The trade war between America and China has reached an ugly stalemate. Both sides have suggested they are open to de-escalation, but the chances of a formal deal any time soon seem slim. If the tariffs remain in place, the World Trade Organisation expects that Chinese goods exports to America, worth about US$440 billion (S$575.63 billion) in 2024, will fall by 77 per cent in 2025. On April 30, a gauge of new export orders fell to its lowest level since 2022.

That Ningbo-Zhoushan Port looks active reflects the fact that China exports to the whole world. America is the country with which it trades the most, but accounted for only about 15 per cent of its exports in 2024, down from over 20 per cent at the start of President Donald Trump's first term.