The massive gamble to destroy Iran's nukes

Israel's actions could buy time to forestall Iran crashing the nuclear club — or trigger a cascade of new bomb seekers.

- Bhavan Jaipragas

Of all that will be parsed from Iran's public statements in the coming days, it's especially worth scrutinising what Tehran says about the global non-proliferation regime.

Throughout its chequered history of dubious nuclear activities and its civilian nuclear energy programme, the Islamic republic has periodically threatened to quit the near-universal Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which it ratified in 1970.

The NPT includes 185 countries that have sworn off nuclear weapons, while five established nuclear powers — the US, Britain, China, France and Russia — are recognised as legitimate weapon states.

Only five countries remain outside this framework: South Sudan, the world's newest nation, and four nuclear-armed holdouts — India, Israel and Pakistan never signed up, while North Korea withdrew in 2003.

Now, pushed firmly against the wall after Israel's unprecedented, sweeping attacks on its nuclear programme, fuel production facilities and top military leadership since June 13, Iran's government may well conclude that acquiring a nuclear bomb is a necessity rather than an aspiration.

In this scenario, Tehran would see little reason to even perfunctorily adhere to treaty obligations or maintain cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). If Iran withdraws from the NPT to sprint towards developing a nuclear weapon — no matter how rudimentary — it could arguably have graver global consequences, particularly for us in Asia, than any immediate escalation within the Middle East.

Iran would become the second country after North Korea to exit the NPT, but this time amid heightened uncertainty about US' extended deterrence under President Donald Trump's "America First" foreign policy.