Takaichi or Koizumi: Will it make a difference to Japan's foreign policy?

One's more hawkish than the other but the next prime minister faces domestic and external constraints on Tokyo's room for manoeuvre.

- Denny Roy

The race to determine the leader of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) — and likely Japan’s next prime minister - is under way. Although the outcome won't be known till Oct 4, Ms Sanae Takaichi and Mr Shinjiro Koizumi are the favourites.

So far, attention has focused on whether Japan would get its first female prime minister or its youngest, along with the many domestic challenges that await the eventual winner.

Less discussed, but at least as important, are the ramifications of the LDP leadership election for Japan’s foreign policy.

The stakes are high given Japan’s fraught external environment coinciding with an LDP battered at the polls. Will either candidate be able to save a party struggling to provide fresh vision?

From what is known about Ms Takaichi and Mr Koizumi, it appears that they offer Japan different future pathways in a daunting geopolitical landscape.

DANGERS WITHOUT

The threats from Japan’s neighbourhood are rising. China is building up its armed forces with designs on what Tokyo considers to be Japanese territory while apparently preparing for a military conquest of Taiwan. North Korea, which has threatened to use nuclear arms against Japan, controls a growing arsenal of such weapons. Russia, which in Japan’s view already illegally occupies the Northern Territories, is embroiled in a merciless invasion of Ukraine, which deeply alarms Tokyo. It does not help that China and Russia are forging closer ties.

In the face of these worrying trends, what Japan is getting from its US ally is, at best, tough love. The Trump administration is pressing Tokyo to sharply increase its defence spending and pay more to cover the costs of American bases in Japan. It’s a tall order, not least because of Japan’s high public debt.