Slowing innovation is ruining American politics

Without technological breakthroughs supercharging the economy, division and polarization thrive.

- Gautam Mukunda

If there's one thing every American agrees on, it's that politics has become vicious. There are plenty of explanations for why that is, from gerrymandering to the partisan sorting that has made both parties increasingly ideologically homogenous. One I'd add — but which often gets overlooked — is the slowdown in US technological progress outside of computing. Technology is the most important driver of economic growth, and its rapid progress allows political disputes to center on how best to distribute gains. That's easy. What's hard is when technology stagnates, growth slows and politics becomes zero-sum. The last few years have seen the promise of new technologies that could help us escape that trap — but the Trump administration is throwing that opportunity away.

The idea that technological progress has slowed might seem counter-intuitive when you consider the smartphone you probably have in your hand right now. But George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen has mustered convincing evidence that that's exactly what's happening in nearly every field other than computing. For example, the Wright Brothers made their first flight in 1903; both the Boeing 747 and the Concorde appeared less than 70 years later. If you had shown either jet to the Wrights, they would have thought they were hallucinating. Fast-forward another half century and the differences between the 747 and a modern passenger plane are subtle, while no civilian aircraft approaches the Concorde's speed. The problem stretches far beyond aviation. The most basic measure of social well-being is life expectancy. Advances in technology, like vaccines and antibiotics, constantly increased our lifespans during the 20th century. Yet, American life expectancy peaked more than a decade ago.