Recession will not make Trump change course

A president who cannot run again is freer from public opinion than business seems to realise.

- Janan Ganesh

Whatever their other failings, the millennials contributed to civilisation the word "cope" in noun form. To translate, a cope is an attempt to make a situation seem less desperate than it is, and so examples abound in these grim times. "At least Donald Trump will be good for business." That is a cope. "If there is one thing Donald Trump takes notice of, it is the stock market." That is a first-class cope. Citing the worsening economic data and presidential approval ratings, on the premise that "Donald Trump can't ignore these numbers", is the cope of the month.

Of course, he can ignore them. The central fact about US President Trump's second term is that he cannot run for a third. He is now emancipated from public opinion, which did a serviceable job of keeping him in check during his first term. If his tariffs induce a recession, or his foreign policies a world crisis, driving his approval rating to hellish depths, what exactly does he lose? At worst, the Republicans — for whom he cares little — will crash at the midterm elections, after which a second-term president is a lame duck regardless.