Quake in Myanmar Should Force the Junta's Hand

Natural disasters have spurred the end of long-running civil conflicts.

- Ruth Pollard

Myanmar's generals have a choice to make following the 7.7-magnitude earthquake on March 28.

They can repeat the mistakes of 17 years ago when they refused to allow international help after Cyclone Nargis tore through the country, leaving 140,000 dead, or facilitate the free flow of urgent assistance.

Determined to keep Myanmar closed to the world, the junta blocked international relief efforts by banning foreign boats and aircraft from delivering supplies and delaying visas for aid workers in the first few critical weeks after the 2008 disaster.

It cannot afford to take the same path this time. Modelling from the United States Geological Survey indicates that more than 10,000 people may have died in the quake, and that estimated economic losses could exceed the nation's gross domestic product.

So far, the generals appear to be allowing some assistance in, although we are yet to see whether it reaches areas held by the anti-junta resistance. Severely limited internet access means there is little information about the true death toll other than the official tally of 2,056, with more than 3,900 injured.

That Myanmar is in the midst of a civil war is complicating rescue efforts and the distribution of aid. The regime, which took power in a coup in 2021, controls less than a quarter of the country.