Post-election euphoria buoys US consumer confidence

Index beats forecast to hit 16-month high amid optimism over labour market, stocks

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WASHINGTON - US consumer confidence increased to a 16-month high in November amid optimism over the labor market, and expectations for lower inflation and higher stock prices over the next year.

Part of the second straight monthly rise in confidence reported by the Conference Board think tank on Nov 26 likely reflected the outcome of the Nov 5 election, which returned Donald Trump to the White House and gave his Republican Party control of the US Congress.

The Conference Board did not attribute the improvement to the election, but noted "that write-in responses about politics, including the November elections, surged to above 2020 levels".

"The increase in the headline likely was driven by euphoria among Republicans," said Mr Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The index also jumped in late 2016, when Mr Trump was elected for the first time, suggesting that the sample of households in the Conference Board survey leans more Republican than the population at large."

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 111.7 in November, the highest since July 2023, from a revised 109.6 in October.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index advancing to 111.3 from the previously reported 108.7.

The cut-off date for the survey was Nov 18. It mirrored a similar increase in the University of Michigan sentiment survey, which was skewed towards Republicans.