Not just trash: Why S. Korea is holding back in the 'balloon war'

Pyongyang's provocations are escalating beyond sending rubbish across the border. The battle of the balloons belies a more dangerous confrontation under way - one that might involve a larger power.

- Lin Suling

Living next to nuisance neighbours can make life a living nightmare. But imagine if you couldn't call on a higher power to intervene or move somewhere else. That hellscape aptly describes the plight of South Korea, held hostage to decades of attacks, harassment and provocations.

The latest salvo in this saga is the flying of balloons, filled with trash or manure, into parts of South Korea, supposedly in retaliation for the loudspeakers blaring K-pop and the dropping of leaflets and SD cards packed with glowing stories about life in Seoul. What started in May has persisted and broadened into a low-attrition war of sporadic but consistent bombardment on a wider array of targets, including the presidential compound in Seoul. Over 7,000 such balloons have been sent southwards in 2024.

GROWING COMPLACENCY On the surface, the ploy seems minor, even petty and unworthy of a response. No South Korean has perished or been wounded. The South Korean military's Joint Chiefs of Staff also downplayed the severity, citing that the bags attached had contained mostly paper and plastic waste, prompting South Korean netizens to joke they were a friendly delivery of recycling material.

Still, trivialising the incidents simply plays into Pyongyang's hands, including its strategy to desensitise South Koreans to what is an active threat. Yes, balloons, even those filled with disgusting but otherwise non-toxic stuff, are better than bombs. But that is a low and wrong baseline.

The more important question is whether South Korea can discern what dangerous materials - biological, chemical or flammable - might be carried in the next round of balloons. Would air defence systems even bother to be on alert to take down these threats, now that these incidents have been normalised?