No big economic shift expected at China's party conclave in July

Analysts see Beijing keeping current recipe, including drive towards tech self-sufficiency

- Lim Min Zhang

With China’s economy facing a host of challenges, an upcoming conclave of Communist Party leaders is expected to provide the blueprint for growth for at least the next five years.

Yet, after a long delay of the third plenum, plus a flurry of official meetings, inspection tours and study sessions over the past month in preparation for the meeting scheduled for July, analysts are not betting on a decisive shift in economic strategy.

Instead, China is likely to keep its current prescription, including accelerating the drive towards technological self-sufficiency and industrial upgrading, while addressing persistent drags such as the real estate sector and local government debt.

Closely watched will be whether there are greater signals on boosting consumption, which economists have long called for in order to move towards a more sustainable growth model, especially as exports and investment have come under pressure, with trade tensions and flagging confidence in the business environment.

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) – the party’s highest decision-making body – typically holds seven plenary sessions during its five-year term. The third meeting is usually held about a year after the committee is elected and focuses on economic reforms.

The current committee, elected in October 2022, was expected to hold its third plenum by the end of 2023. But it was only in April that the committee’s political bureau announced that the meeting would be held in July, with the agenda as “further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernisation”.