Medium Risk' of Severe Haze Affecting Singapore and Neighbors for Rest of Year

Assessment by local think-tank based on developments in markets, weather, policies

- Chin Hui Shan

There is a "medium risk" of severe haze affecting Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia for the rest of 2025, a local think-tank has assessed in its yearly haze outlook.

But the assessment by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), released on July 28, said that in the event of a haze, it should not be prolonged.

In 2024, the SIIA had said there was a "low risk" of transboundary haze. This was assessed based on developments in three areas: markets, weather, and policies.

It noted in its report, now in its seventh year, that agricultural commodity prices have been elevated. Agricultural commodities in the region include palm oil, and pulp and paper.

"Prices this year are elevated, and estimates show some uptick in deforestation in Indonesia from 2023 to 2024," the report said.

Elevated agricultural prices could be due to rising global and regional demand amid lagging supply, according to the report.

Dry weather, as well as new food and energy projects announced by Indonesia, could also drive forest fires, the report noted.

The SIIA assesses transboundary haze risk on a three-level scale of green, amber, and red. Green refers to low risk, and red denotes high risk.

The report said the medium risk of transboundary haze in 2025—up from the low risk assessment the year before—is a concerning shift.

"Early in the year, many weather assessments projected a relatively benign haze season," said Associate Professor Simon Tay, chairman of the SIIA.

"However, as the situation evolved, it has become clear that regional fire and haze risks are rising—not just from weather but from global economic and policy changes," he said.