Israel's expected counter-strike will spur Iranian nationalism: Analysts

Hardline regime also stands to benefit from reaction in the wider Muslim world

- Bhagyashree Garekar

An anticipated Israeli counter-strike to the recent barrage of Iranian drone and missile attacks will bolster Tehran's theocratic regime by stoking nationalistic sentiment within Iran, analysts say.

On April 13, Iran launched more than 300 armed drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles across Israel.

While Israel, the US and its regional allies shot down almost all the weapons over Israeli skies, an Israeli counter-attack on Iran could lead to a wider war.

Israel started the current cycle of confrontation when it killed top officials in Iran's military in a missile attack on the Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital of Damascus on April 1.

Iran claims to have retaliated for that targeted assassination.

The understanding in Washington is that Israel's expected strikes will be limited in scope and targeted at Iran's military assets and its proxies in the region.

US officials, however, maintain that they have not been briefed about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans.

No matter when such a strike is launched, it could serve to consolidate the Iranian regime that had faced widespread civil unrest and protests in 2022.

"If Israel attacks Iran, this is a big gift to the Islamic Republic because Iranians are very nationalistic," Dr Paul Salem, president and chief executive of the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told The Straits Times. "And while they may disagree with their government, they will support it against any foreign attack." The hardline regime also stands to benefit from the reaction in the wider Muslim world. Few will support an Israeli attack on Iran, regardless of the provocation.

Although Jordan and Saudi Arabia stepped in to help the US shoot down the drones and missiles fired at Israel, they are critical of Israel's conduct in the Gaza war.