Iran has three options; all may lead to broader Middle East war

It cannot afford to see Hezbollah destroyed amid Israel's lethal pounding of Lebanon

- Jonathan Eyal

As Israeli jets continue to target the Hezbollah militant group based in Lebanon, most Western governments are working hard to prevent the bloodshed from morphing into a broader and much deadlier Middle East war.

This cannot be achieved merely by persuading Israel and Hezbollah to stop firing; any effort to stabilise the region also requires the urgent backing of Iran, Hezbollah's paymaster and ultimate patron.

The Iranians have repeatedly indicated that they don't want a military confrontation with Israel at this stage. Yet Iran cannot afford to sit idly by and see Hezbollah, its most significant regional asset, destroyed by Israel.

So, any Western attempt to stop the current fighting in Lebanon ultimately hinges on persuading Iran to keep out of the fray as a prelude to putting pressure on Israel to stop shooting.

Initial indications are that Western appeals of restraint are getting through to the Iranians. On Sept 24, French President Emmanuel Macron met Mr Masoud Pezeshkian, his Iranian counterpart, on the margins of the annual United Nations gathering in New York.

Mr Macron stressed "Iran's responsibility to support a general de-escalation and to use its influence in this regard with the destabilising actors who receive its support", the French President's spokesman said, referring to Iran's connections to Hezbollah.

Mr Pezeshkian's response was encouraging.

While he accused Israel of fanning the flames of war in the Middle East, he expressed his hope that Iran could avoid being dragged into acting in a way "not worthy" of it.

"We know more than anyone else that if a larger war were to erupt in the Middle East, it would not benefit anyone throughout the world. It is Israel that seeks to create this wider conflict," Mr Pezeshkian told journalists in New York.