India still does not know current size of its population

Set to become most populous nation in the census world, it has yet to start long-delayed

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NEW DELHI - In two months, India is projected to become the world's most populous country, with more than 1.4 billion people. But for at least a year, and possibly longer, the country will not know how many people it has because it has not been able to count them.

India's once-in-a-decade census, due in 2021 and delayed because of the Covid-19 pandemic, is now bogged down by technical and logistical hurdles, and there are no signs that the mammoth exercise is likely to begin soon.

Experts say the delay in updating data like employment, housing, literacy levels, migration patterns and infant mortality, which are captured by the census, affects social and economic planning and policymaking in the huge Asian economy.

Calling census data "indispensable", Ms Rachna Sharma, a fellow at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, said studies like the consumption expenditure survey and the periodic labour force survey are estimations based on information from the census.

"In the absence of latest census data, the estimations are based on data that is one decade old and is likely to provide estimates that are far from reality," Ms Sharma said.

A senior official at the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said census data from 2011, when the count was last conducted, was being used for projections and estimates required to assess government spending.

A spokesman for the ministry said its role was limited to providing the best possible projections and could not comment on the census process. The Prime Minister's Office did not respond to requests for comment.