Cocoa's historic crunch shows signs of a turnaround

Production expected to increase in South America, while demand continues to fall

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The world’s cocoa crunch is finally showing signs of a turnaround, as better harvests in South America and waning demand put supplies on track for a back-to-back surplus.

Production is forecast to outpace consumption by about 186,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 season that starts in October, according to the average estimate of as many as 13 analysts and traders compiled by Bloomberg.

That would be more than double the size of the surplus in the current season, the survey showed.

The improvement will help replenish global inventories that had been depleted following consecutive poor harvests in West Africa, a major growing region.

That pushed New York futures up more than fourfold in the past three years, reaching a record in December and raising chocolate costs for consumers.

While still historically high, prices have fallen about 40 per cent in 2025 as consumers buy less chocolate and chocolatiers reformulate recipes. Coupled with the prospect of better harvests, that could limit fresh rallies.