China's climate balancing act: Mixed signals over coal undercut green push

Continued addition of coal-fired plants casts doubts on Beijing's decarbonisation drive

- Kok Yufeng

A coal-fired power station in China's Hebei province. All eyes are now on China's upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, which will give greater clarity about the future of China's massive coal capacity and the trajectory of its clean energy expansion.

(PHOTO: AFP)

China's overall carbon emissions in 2025 are set to remain stable for the second year running, driven by an unprecedented clean energy boom, new research has found.

But signs of a slowdown in the installation of new solar and wind power capacity, coupled with the continued addition of coal-fired plants, have cast doubts about whether Beijing will keep its decarbonisation push on track.

China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, accounting for almost a third of global emissions, according to data from the Global Carbon Budget, an annual scientific report that tracks sources of the planet-warming gas.

This means China is key to curbing the pace of climate change and meeting the international goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 deg C under the United Nations' Paris Agreement.

The planet is close to breaching that temperature goal.

China's climate policies also affect global energy markets.

It is the world's top producer of electricity, top consumer and producer of coal, and the leading oil and liquefied natural gas importer.

A report published on Dec 4 by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Helsinki-based independent research organisation, projects a 0.2 per cent increase in China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2025 compared with 2024.

This continues an 18-month trend of China's emission levels either staying flat or declining, according to the report.