Beijing's tough talk on Taiwan: Posturing or prelude to war?

Rhetoric may be heating up, but analysts say the goal remains deterrence for now

- Lim Min Zhang

On March 14, the commander of the Chinese military's Eastern Theatre Command delivered a stark warning during a high-level meeting on the 20th anniversary of the Anti-Secession Law. General Lin Xiangyang said his unit, which oversees the Taiwan Strait, maintains a "high level of combat readiness at all times". Such war-like rhetoric has sharpened over the past week, with online chatter in China fuelling concerns about whether Beijing is preparing for war over Taiwan.

The Anti-Secession Law, passed in 2005, remains the cornerstone of China's policy on Taiwan, legitimising any potential invasion of the self-governing island. It states that Beijing will employ non-peaceful means should Taiwan declare independence.

The meeting in Beijing was held a day after Taiwan President Lai Ching-te issued some of his strongest comments to date about China's influence campaigns against the island. For the first time, he labelled China a "foreign hostile force".

The comments triggered a show of force from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which conducted drills near Taiwan on March 17 that Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Chen Binhua described as a "resolute punishment" for Mr Lai's "continuous promotion" of separatist fallacies.

"If the Lai Ching-te administration dares to provoke and play with fire, they will only destroy themselves and be torn to pieces," he warned.

An op-ed from the official PLA Daily on March 15 added: "The more rampant the 'Taiwan independence' elements become, the tighter the noose around their necks will be, and the sharper the sword above their heads will become."