Repopulation program saved PH pig count from ASF – study

Pig populations in Central Luzon and Calabarzon could have been wiped out by African swine fever (ASF) a few years ago if not for the government's repopulation program, new research showed.

- By JASPER EMMANUEL ARCALAS

A recent study published recently in the Scopus-indexed Evaluation and Program Planning journal of Elsevier Ltd. analyzed the impact of the Department of Agriculture's (DA) pig repopulation program as the country battled ASF, a disease that is fatal to hogs but not harmful to humans.

The study, titled "Ex-post impact analysis of the Philippine pig repopulation program," is authored by Lary Nel Abao, Ruth Sonaco, Miguel Guioguio, Alvin Paul Dirain, Roland Fajardo and Joseph Frank Mgaya.

The study noted that the country's pork output fell by 26 percent in 2021 due to ASF. Subsequently, the plunge in domestic supplies pushed pork prices upward, affecting vulnerable consumers and livelihoods.

The study focused on the impact of the DA's repopulation program in three regions that received the highest funding allocations in 2022 and 2023, namely Central Luzon, Calabarzon and Davao region.

The DA's repopulation program allocated a total of P1.44 billion in Central Luzon from 2022 to 2023, P858 million in Calabarzon from 2022 to 2024 and P242.14 million in Davao from 2022 to 2023.

The study mapped out two analytical scenarios: one when there was no ASF yet covering the years 2000 up to the second quarter of 2019, while the other being the pre-repopulation program scenario from 2000 to the end of 2021.

Furthermore, the researchers employed a cost-benefit analysis to evaluate the economic viability of the repopulation program.

The researchers also used the SARIMA model in analyzing the time series data on pig production since it exhibits seasonal patterns influenced by biological cycles, market demand and environmental conditions.