Economic Indicators

Many decades ago, in one of my economics classes, we discussed how two interesting indicators, Meralco and San Miguel beer sales, can give us an idea of the economy's health.

- BOO CHANCO

High demand for electricity must indicate increased economic activity. On the other hand, we noted an increase in beer sales every time the harvests of coconut and other crops were good.

Meralco sales may still be a good indicator of economic activity, at least in Mega Manila and Calabarzon. But beer sales have been down 30 percent since the time the sin tax was imposed and has not recovered.

In last week's briefing conducted by Ferdinand Geluz, Meralco's SVP and chief revenue officer, there were hints that the economy is moving ever so slowly in a positive direction but with increased downside risks.

Meralco moderated expectations after noting a GDP growth forecast downgrade from six to 5.5 percent in April, driven by uncertainties from the US tariff policy.

Meralco's energy sales for the first half of 2025 were 27,991 gigawatt hours, a slight uptick of 0.5 percent versus last year's El Niño-driven high base. Meralco's quarter-on-quarter sales grew 1.5 percent in Q1, but contracted by -0.3 percent in Q2 with negative numbers in May and June. Sector-by-sector growth mirrors the same trend.

Meralco residential sales growth was at 0.7 percent versus almost 13 percent last year.

Meralco commercial sales posted a marginal growth of just 0.3 percent versus almost 10 percent last year. Expansions in retail and restaurants were countered by the impact of office vacancies due to POGO.

Meralco saw continuous growth in sales for the industrial segment last month. Semiconductors grew, driven by strong demand in storage devices, microchips and multilayer capacitors.

Meralco's industrial sales inched up by half a percent compared to 2.5 percent last year with demand for semiconductors, cement and construction materials and steel.