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Should Reeves's fiscal rules stay golden, or are they meant to be broken?

The Observer

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March 23, 2025

Phillip Inman on the economic constraints underpinning the chancellor's spring statement - and why she sees them as vital

- Phillip Inman

Should Reeves's fiscal rules stay golden, or are they meant to be broken?

As Rachel Reeves faced a backlash over government plans unveiled last week to slash spending to balance the books, the chancellor and Treasury repeatedly argued that difficult decisions were necessary to avoid breaking the fiscal rules she adopted last October.

But what exactly are these constraints, and why does Reeves believe them to be so important? In the build-up to Wednesday's spring statement, why are many economists urging her to flex or even rewrite them, as chancellors have on several occasions since they were first drafted by Labour nearly three decades ago?

Why does the Treasury have budget rules?

Responsible governments should match day-to-day spending with their income and only borrow to invest. This is the "golden rule" adopted by Gordon Brown in 1997 and contained in the charter and fiscal framework George Osborne adopted when he became chancellor in 2010 in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Osborne provided an extra layer of oversight, telling the Treasury it could no longer mark its own homework. To this end, he created an independent forecaster and auditor - the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Keir Starmer's government is following the Brown playbook with a view to telling financial markets and voters the public finances are safe in Labour's hands, and to avoid a jump in the cost of servicing government debt such as the one that followed Liz Truss's disastrous mini-budget, which avoided OBR oversight.

What is the mandate?

The charter for budget responsibility "presents the government's approach to operating fiscal policy and managing sustainable public finances in the long-term interests of the UK".

MEER VERHALEN VAN The Observer

The Observer

Can a biopic of the Boss be anything other than blinded by his light?

Heavens above, not another biopic. I'm still in recovery from A Complete Unknown, James Mangold’s attempted unveiling of The Mysterious Soul of Bob Dylan starring Timothy Someone-or-other.

time to read

2 mins

October 26, 2025

The Observer

The Observer

Reeves is still only getting part of the Brexit message

The financial markets, and much of the media, seem obsessed by the level of public sector debt and borrowing.

time to read

3 mins

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The Observer

The Observer

The anonymous Twitter troll account set up to discredit Virginia Giuffre

The online attacks came thick and fast, all 479 of them designed to discredit the accuser of Epstein, Maxwell and Prince Andrew.

time to read

5 mins

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The Observer

The Observer

Badenoch and Farage should stop playground politics of making rules they can't keep

Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. That's the golden rule I remember being taught as a child in primary school. Not a bad guiding principle.

time to read

3 mins

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The Observer

The Observer

Museums are in the pink while corporate sponsors remain shy

By embracing private philanthropy, the sector has received record sums, however businesses are feeling burnt by protests, write Nicole Fan and Stephen Armstrong

time to read

3 mins

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The Observer

The Observer

'Democrat saviour' or 'commie bastard': Mamdani, would-be king of New York

The 34-year-old socialist set to become the Big Apple's first Muslim mayor may be the left's greatest hope - and biggest threat. Hugh Tomlinson joins the new star of US politics on the campaign trail

time to read

8 mins

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The Observer

Use Russia's money

Europe has missed its chance to hit Putin's finances

time to read

2 mins

October 26, 2025

The Observer

Struggling 'clean food' brands dig in for long haul

Autumn, season of mists and mellow fruitfulness, wrote Keats. Not if you're in the plant-based food industry. Sales at major brands, including Oatly and Beyond Meat, are stalling.

time to read

2 mins

October 26, 2025

The Observer

Reeves mission: to build a European Silicon Valley centred on 'golden triangle'

Brexit is costing the UK 80bn a year in lost taxes, hitting output by up to 8% and investment by more than twice as much. The chancellor has her work cut out

time to read

5 mins

October 26, 2025

The Observer

The Observer

Academics sign letter of support after ‘vile’ abuse of Israeli professor

Tom Watson, Margaret Hodge, Michael Grade, Prof Andrew Roberts and hundreds of academics are among more than 1,600 signatories of an open letter condemning a “targeted harassment campaign” against an Israeli professor at a London university.

time to read

1 mins

October 26, 2025

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