Reeves must break her fiscal rules. Better now than later

Critics of Rachel Reeves are enjoying another a "told you so" moment.

- Phillip Inman

It was never realistic, they say, to formulate a budget plan with virtually no leeway to accommodate for unforeseen events.

Less than £10bn of headroom on a budget of £1.2tn was asking for trouble. It is clear there are just too many events that could be put on a list of "known unknowns" for a UK chancellor to almost wilfully wish away their potential impact on the economy and the public finances.

One of those was the prospect of Donald Trump winning the US presidency and, once installed in the White House, pulling every lever at his disposal to create the uncertainty, if not chaos, he believes gives the US supreme bargaining power over whatever issue he wants to tackle. The global tariff war unleashed by the mobster-like president last week is a case in point.

At last month's spring statement, Reeves rejected another opportunity to inject more flexibility into her budget rules to accommodate the almost inevitable swings in economic forecasts that, in turn, affect the public finances.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the body that produces independent forecasts for the Treasury, has shown in charts how Reeves is one of the worst offenders since the OBR was created in 2010.