JOBLESSNESS IS WORSE THAN WE EXPECTED

The curse of joblessness won't leave us. And it is getting worse.

- GURBIR SINGH

Unemployment, from a peak of 8% in the worst Covid financial year 2020-21, came down substantially to 3.2% for FY2024. But now, it has crept up again. The government's monthly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) for June 2025 shows India's unemployment rate rose to 5.6%, up from 5.1% for the previous month of May.

This may be a conservative figure as the independent think tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) puts the unemployment rate at 7.0%.

In simple terms, an unemployed person is one who actively seeks work, but is unable to find a job. Government headline figures seem quite quixotic as real joblessness seems much higher. In Maharashtra, about a year ago, a recruitment drive for police jobs saw over 17.76 lakh applications for just 17,471 posts spread over constables, drivers, police band members and jail staff. Such anecdotal evidence tells a different story.

The problem is that the headline unemployment figures hide more than they reveal. For example, the unemployment survey carried out by business daily Mint shows that if you peel away at the unemployment figure of 3.2% for 2024, the unemployment rate for graduates is as high as 13%, and for youth between 15 and 29 years, it is 10.2%.

According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), for calendar 2024, the estimated youth unemployment -- those between 15 and 24 years -- was at 16.03%. Over the last decade, the unemployment rate has averaged around 22%.