This could be a Farage-quake that changes things forever

Winning Mike Amesbury’s seat might start a domino effect for Reform

- katy Balls

It was a by-election that caused a political earthquake. In 1981, Shirley Williams changed the temperature in Westminster when the new Social Democratic Party triumphed in the once true blue seat of Crosby. Months before, her fellow Gang of Four member Roy Jenkins had come tantalisingly close to winning a by-election in Warrington against Labour but fell short by 2,000 votes. Williams had no such issues — romping home with nearly 50 per cent of the vote.

As The New York Times reported at the time, it was a result that “established a new force in politics as an equal contender for political power”… “unless the Labour and Conservative parties can blunt the thrust of the alliance” the new party had an “excellent chance to win the general election”. The four former Labour MPs, who had abandoned Michael Foot’s leadership of the party following the conference pledge for nuclear disarmament, looked set to break the two-party system. It wasn’t just a problem for their former party — the result showed that the new outfit could also cause havoc for Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives.

Now the question being asked in Westminster is whether Nigel Farage can create a similar moment. This week saw the former Labour MP — and one-time Starmtrooper — Mike Amesbury sentenced to 10 weeks in jail following an assault conviction. The whole episode, which included CCTV footage of the incident posted on major news outlets, has already been a cause of embarrassment to a Mr Rules prime minister who promised to clean up politics. As damage control, the party was quick to suspend Amesbury.