Why low-polling Lib Dems could take dozens of seats

When this election is over, there will be much attention on the new government, the plight of the opposition, and the prospects for the nation.

- SEAN O'GRADY

One of the more important issues that will also inevitably re-emerge is how the British first-past-the-post system can throw up some exaggerated and eccentric outcomes in parliament, and with that will come another great debate on electoral reform. The performances of the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives and Reform UK will present this issue in sharp relief.

So how are the Liberal Democrats doing?

Disappointingly. Their poll ratings usually rise during the formal period of a general election because of the increased (and fairer) coverage they receive in the broadcast media, but they’re seemingly stuck at the moment, and they have started from a low base.

Ed Davey has been leader since after the previous fiasco of the 2019 general election, when his predecessor Jo Swinson gifted Boris Johnson his early “Get Brexit Done” election. She gave the impression that she was headed into No 10 with a mandate to reverse Brexit. In the event, she garnered 11.7 per cent of the vote, 11 MPs and lost her own seat. Yet now, at a time of almost unparalleled Tory unpopularity, the Lib Dems are registering about 9 per cent in voting intention polls. So, depending on how things develop, and despite excellent by-election and local election success, on 4 July they may well do worse than they did last time around on vote share. Indeed, the party will probably slide into fourth place, well behind Reform UK on votes cast.

Why so weak?