Wargame simulates how hesitation could see Russia take Lithuania 'within days'

Situation gamed by ex-Nato officials suggests the US would oppose triggering Article 5 if Moscow invaded Baltic nation

- ALEX CROFT

A new wargame simulating a Russian incursion into Lithuania, carried out by ex-Nato and German officials, concluded that Moscow would "achieve most of its goals" within days.

The exercise envisaged a scenario where the Kremlin used bogus claims of a "humanitarian crisis" in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampole to its east, a key conurbation through which the road linking Russia and Belarus runs.

The scenario, which plays out in October of this year, suggests that an absence of US leadership and hesitancy from Nato countries could allow Moscow to gain total control over the Baltic within days, using an initial force of only 15,000 troops.