Ukraine can and will survive if its allies get serious quickly

We have the shadow of war knocking at Europe’s door, the armed forces minister Al Carns, the much-decorated Royal Marines veteran, explained in glorious mixed metaphor to assembled defence correspondents.

- ROBERT FOX

He was opening the new Military Intelligence hub at RAF Wyton. Experts from seven different branches of the service confirmed that aggressive cyber and information operations by Russia on UK interests have gone up 50 per cent in the last year alone.

The message has been underscored by Nato’s civilian boss, Secretary General Mark Rutte, the hugely experienced Dutch statesman. He said Europe and Nato must be ready for conflict with Russia “on a scale our grandparents and great-grandparents endured”.

Russia’s leadership is repeating that it does not want to “go to war with Europe, but is prepared for war” if it is provoked. The words are eerily similar to what the Kremlin said through the winter of 2021 about not intending to invade Ukraine, unless circumstances changed. The similarity in language and information tactics has alarmed UK defence intelligence and its sister agencies.

The question for the security of Europe now and for the coming winter months is whether Ukraine can hold out and be defended, now that Russia and America seem to be writing off its chances of survival? Trump has said that Ukraine cannot win, and must negotiate with Russia, implying the terms will be pretty unfavourable. Moscow is clearly bidding for regime change in Kyiv and for Ukraine to rejoin the Kremlin sphere of influence.