Putin’s ‘winning’ ways and how he could play Trump

Understanding how Vladimir Putin thinks in the run-up to the crucial summit with Donald Trump in Alaska is about understanding what the Russian leader is accustomed to: being dominant at home, but seen as a pariah in most of the democratic world.

- ANNE MCELVOY

In his view, today's summit is about his grand reentry onto the international stage and a complex psychological interplay with a US leader who is also fixated on what a “win” in ending (or rather stalling) the war in Ukraine would do for his personal brand.

The dynamics of a summit that has already sidelined Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky - and reduced European leaders to holding their own meeting in Berlin - will be driven by the needs of two men with immense but fragile egos.

For Putin, this means a return to an aspect of the Cold War he has long hankered to revive: a bilateral relationship between Moscow and the Washington that downgrades European leaders, creating a club of neo-imperial “winners”. Anything that diminishes the role of European powers and Nato is seen as an advantage to the Kremlin - the old Soviet rules of the game still apply.

Trump, meanwhile, is seeking the best terms for American retreats from costly foreign commitments, which means outcomes from the summit will be more about appearance than durable reality; a performative sign that the only “special” relationship that matters is between Moscow and Washington. The currency of success for the participants is the image of their partnership - a message intended to resonate in London, Berlin, Paris, and also Beijing. Any other concerns, as the dismissive Russian phrase would put it, are pustyaki - small potatoes. Trump and Putin are united in a ruthless quest for success bound up with their persona and drive for control. While their systems, biographies and characters may be different — Putin plans methodically several moves ahead, whereas Trump has become a byword for sudden moves that knock rivals off balance - their similarities run deep.