If income tax isn't going up... what is, chancellor?

If a week is a long time in politics, two weeks is an age away. It was a fortnight ago, give or take, that the press were summoned to 10 Downing Street for an early morning pre-Budget briefing from the chancellor.

- CHRIS BLACKHURST

Such an event was virtually unprecedented. Clearly, Rachel Reeves had something significant to say. It quickly became clear this was a softening-up exercise, warning “each of us must do our bit”. In her sights, plainly, were the Labour manifesto untouchables of a rise in national insurance, VAT and income tax. But such was the gap in public funding that they were no longer off limits.

Subsequently, the consensus focused on a rise in income tax. There were no denials, just embarrassed shrugs by Labour high-ups whenever it was mentioned.

Then suddenly, the mood music changed yesterday. Apparently, according to one aide - briefing anonymously, naturally - it is thought to be a “compromise too far”. Income tax will not be going up when Reeves soon stands at the despatch box.

What’s changed? There was the party bracing itself for an almighty electoral betrayal; the backbenches thought so, the opposition thought so, and so did supposedly well-informed commentators. Now, though, it’s gone.

Officially - if that is how the reversal can be described - the reason is that the fiscal forecast has improved. Instead of a £30bn black hole, it is now put at £20bn.