How two-party grip will be put to test in local elections

Local elections historically have a pitiful turnout, and this year's polls for councils, regional and mayoral seats in England - with an added parliamentary by-election in Runcorn - look set to be no exception.

- DAVID MADDOX

But the lack of enthusiasm from voters to head to the ballot box does not prevent these from being the most significant nonparliamentary elections since 2008, when Boris Johnson deposed Labour’s Ken Livingstone to become London mayor.

Little did we know then, but that victory catapulted Mr Johnson into leading the successful Brexit campaign eight years later and then on to becoming prime minister in 2019.

The results, to be revealed on Friday, could equally be a herald of an oncoming earthquake about to shake up British politics. We could be witnessing the slow death of the world’s oldest political party, the Tories, and the end of the two-party dominance that has gripped British democracy since Labour emerged in the 1920s.

Most of all, these elections will provide a crucial test as to whether Nigel Farage and Reform UK are just a by-product of opinion polls with no real substance, or a party to be taken seriously.

The battle for Middle England

In many ways, these elections are the battle for Middle England. The party which holds sway in many of these areas is the party whose leader ends up in Downing Street.

A total of 1,641 council seats are up for grabs, with the Tories defending 954 of them. Of the 23 local authorities holding elections, 14 are county councils: Cambridgeshire, Derbyshire, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Lancashire, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.

Polls are also taking place in eight unitary authorities: Buckinghamshire, Cornwall, Durham, North Northamptonshire, Northumberland, Shropshire, West Northamptonshire and Wiltshire. In addition, one metropolitan council, Doncaster, is holding an election.