Can India become the world's third superpower?

After overtaking the UK, the country faces huge challenges in 2025 as it aspires to rank alongside the US and China

- SHWETA SHARMA

In an exclusive interview with The Independent in September, Tony Blair made a bold claim that India will rise to become a global superpower by 2050. “By the middle of this century, you’re going to have three superpowers – America, China, and you’re going to have India. All other countries are going to be small in comparison,” the former prime minister said.

India’s own prime minister, Narendra Modi, has set out similar aspirations, saying India will achieve “developed” status by 2047. He also vowed to make his country “the third largest economic superpower” by the end of his third term, though he made that pledge before a disappointing set of election results that saw him lose his outright majority in June 2024.

Most projections for India’s future strength are based on two simple facts – that it has now surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world, and its $3 trillion economy, already the fifth-largest, is growing at a faster rate than any other major nation.

Beyond simple economics, India’s importance has also risen geopolitically; courted by the US as a counterweight to China in the Asia-Pacific yet able to maintain strong ties to Russia at the same time, it has carved out a niche that could prove a model for other Global South nations. But does diplomatic independence equate to superpower status – or is it the ability to project power abroad that defines American and Chinese dominance?

India surpassed the UK as the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2023, and analysts at Morgan Stanley agree with Mr Modi in predicting it will overtake Japan and Germany to reach third position by 2027.