All Russia has to show for this invasion is pain

When Vladimir Putin launched his cynically euphemistic “special military operation” against Ukraine four years ago, it was supposed to last about a week. In that time, according to the Kremlin’s plan, Volodymyr Zelensky - a supposed “Nazi” who just happens to be Jewish - was expected to flee Kyiv to some comfortable bolthole in the West.

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Safe to say, things have not gone to plan. Ukrainian territory has been occupied, too often after being razed to the ground, and force has been used to the most obscene degree against the civilian population.

Yet, after some successful Ukrainian counterattacks, Russia today occupies less of Ukraine’s sovereign territory than in the early stages of the war, and its military has proved to be poorly trained, badly led, ill equipped, undisciplined, and not entirely loyal - as was demonstrated by the rebellion staged by the Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023, which came surprisingly close to toppling the Russian president himself.

Russia has threatened the West with nuclear weapons, to no avail, and its economy has been crippled by disinvestment and sanctions. To no small degree does this nominal superpower, with a GDP roughly the size of Italy’s, rely on aid from China, North Korea and Iran. That, in itself, is a national humiliation.