Many in US and Western Europe Think 'Third World War Likely Within 10 Years'

Eighty years after the second world war, polling shows many Americans and western Europeans believe an even more devastating third global conflict could break out within a decade, with tensions with Russia seen as the most probable cause.

- Jon Henley

As Europe prepares to mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day, the YouGov polling also showed large majorities felt that events during and before the second world war were relevant today and must continue to be taught to younger generations.

Between 41% and 55% of respondents in the five European countries polled – Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain – said they thought another world war was very or fairly likely in five to 10 years, a view shared by 45% of Americans.

Majorities of 68% to 76% said they expected any new conflict would involve nuclear weapons, and between 57% and 73% said a third world war would lead to greater loss of life than in 1939-1945. Another 25% to 44% believed it would kill most people in the world.

Most people, ranging from 66% in Italy to 89% in the UK, said they would expect their country to be involved in such a war – but only minorities, from 16% in Italy to 44% in France, thought their armed forces would be able to defend them.