The next movement Prigozhin is gone, but the Sahel will not be free of Wagner soon

Last week, before Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash, the founder of the Russian mercenary group Wagner appeared bullish in a publicity video, holding a rifle and dressed in desert camouflage.

- Dino Mahtani

He was understood to be somewhere in Africa, and stated that he was proud to be "making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa more free". Days later, Prigozhin's death raises questions about how Russia will continue to influence Africa at a time of increasing global competition for its resources.

Wagner's first notable deployment into Africa was in 2018, when it sent trainers and combat units to Central African Republic, becoming indispensable to that country's president and his efforts to stave off rebel forces. The mercenary group, which was accused of atrocities in the country, was granted access to mining sites. The security-for-resources swap would become a template as Russia weathered western sanctions.

The mercenary group also ramped up activities in the Sahel. Russian officials say Moscow wanted to sort out the mess created by western governments. It was their disastrous airborne intervention in 2011 in Libya that ushered in the collapse of the state and the proliferation of weapons and armed fighters across the Sahel.