Progress poll - All eyes on crucial test for African democracy

Upcoming election is a chance for the continent's most populous nation to reaffirm faith in elected governments

- Jason Burke

Nigeria’s upcoming elections have been described as pivotal to the progress of democracy in Africa, where military coups and attempts by longstanding rulers to cling to power have raised fears of a “democratic retreat” from advances made since the end of the Cold War.

More than a dozen African countries go to the polls in the coming 12 months, but experts agree that the vote in the continent’s most populous nation is the one that matters the most.

Nigeria is “a bellwether country”, said Nick Cheeseman, a professor of democracy at the University of Birmingham and an expert on African politics. “If the election is successful and seen to be democratic that is going to be a big shot in the arm for democracy more generally across Africa… but the opposite is also true.”

Idayat Hassan, the director of the Centre for Democracy and Development in Abuja, described the 25 February election as a cause for optimism and a test. “Nigeria has now had almost 24 years of uninterrupted democracy and the two-term limit [for presidents] is being followed… But Nigeria has to get it right,” she said.

Foreign Policy, the respected US global affairs magazine, recently called the election the most important of 2023, describing it as “a global event – even if the world scarcely knows it”.