'Forever war' Risk grows as militants return to Gaza's north

Israel could inherit an insurgency, warns the US, after Hamas regains strength in areas it was forced to flee

- Jason Burke

There may now be more Hamas militants in the north of Gaza - supposedly cleared by Israel's forces many months ago - than in Rafah, the southern city described by Israeli officials as the Islamist organisation's "last stronghold", analysts believe.

More than a million people have fled Rafah, Gaza's southernmost city, after instructions from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the biggest wave of displacement since the early months of the conflict. The IDF has said repeatedly that four Hamas brigades - the militant group's biggest remaining force are based in Rafah.

But though Israeli forces have now invaded Rafah, it was fighting in Jabaliya, the second most populous town in northern Gaza, that was described last month by IDF officials as "perhaps the fiercest" yet seen in the conflict.

Eyal Hulata, the head of Israel's national security council from 2021 to last year, told reporters last month: "We do have to remember there are more Hamas-armed people in the north of Gaza in the places that the IDF has already moved out of than... in Rafah." He added: "Those are the IDF's numbers. This is why the IDF had to go back into Jabaliya and... Zeitoun [a nearby town]. Hamas is controlling all those areas."

Israeli officials, including the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have long claimed that the offensive in Rafah will achieve their stated war aims of destroying Hamas's capability to threaten Israel and freeing hostages held by the group.