Poll: Inflation further eased in December

Headline inflation may have eased to a five-month low in December amid the continued drop in rice prices and cheaper electricity costs, which likely brought full-year inflation well below the target, analysts said.

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A BusinessWorld poll of 14 analysts yielded a median estimate of 1.4% for the consumer price index (CPI) in December.

This is within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.2%-2% forecast for the month.

If realized, the December CPI cooled from 1.5% in November and 2.9% in the same month in 2024.

December would also be the tenth straight month that inflation undershot the central bank’s 2%-4% target.

It would likewise bring full-year inflation to 1.6%, matching the central bank’s projection.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is set to release December and full-year inflation data on Tuesday (Jan. 6).

Union Bank of the Philippines (UnionBank) Chief Economist Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion said inflation likely eased in December as price pressures remained subdued despite the holiday season.

“Price pressures were limited,” he said in an email. “While the peso stayed weak, this was offset by easing global oil prices toward yearend and cooler weather reducing electricity costs. Rice deflation likely persisted, though its impact is waning.”

In mid-December, the average price of regular milled rice declined by 14.05% year on year to P42.10 per kilo from P48.98 per kilo previously, PSA data showed.

Well-milled rice likewise fell by 9.9% year on year to P49.53 per kilo, while special rice fell by an annual 7.17% to P58.91 per kilo.

Meanwhile, the peso closed slightly weaker on the last trading day of 2025 at P58.79 against the greenback, down by 14.5 centavos from its P58.645 per dollar finish on Nov. 28.