CHEAP VEGGIES, COSTLY FUTURE – CLIMATE CHANGE BEHIND INDIA’S ‘COOLING’ FOOD PRICES

In Delhi's Azadpur mandi the rush is unusual.

- TDG NETWORK

Kanta Devi, a homemaker from Gurugram, fills her bag with tomatoes at Rs 30 per kg and onions at Rs 25. She still remembers the summer of 2023 when tomatoes briefly touched Rs120 a kilo and the 2024 monsoon when onions cost Rs 80-100. “Now it's so cheap,” she laughs.The headline figures back her up: India’s consumer food price index (CFPI) was -5.02 per cent in October 2025, with deflation in both rural and urban areas. Overall retail inflation slumped to 0.25 per cent, a 13-year low. The Reserve Bank called it a “goldilocks” moment and cut interest rates.

Behind the bargain prices lies a more troubling trend. Economists warn that the current deflation is the result of slack demand, the base effect of last year’s spikes and a temporary surplus. As soon as crops come under weather stress again, prices can whipsaw. A recent investigation into climate and agriculture shows that heatwaves and unseasonal rain are making food prices more volatile: rainfall shocks raise vegetable inflation by 1.24 percentage points and temperature shocks by 1.30 points. These changes are invisible when the mandi is overflowing with cheap produce, yet they will shape the next decade.