Oil to Isolation, Israel-Iran Conflict Is Cornering India

Brent crude is edging past $90 a barrel, bloating our import bill and weakening the rupee. Inflationary pressures are mounting across sectors like aviation, manufacturing, fertilizers, and consumer goods. These are not just by-products of external developments; they are symptoms of India being behind the diplomatic curve.

- RAKESH K CHITKARA

As the Israel-Iran conflict escalates and threatens to spiral into a broader regional war, most of the world's attention has focused on oil prices and the collateral impact emerging from Middle East instability. But India—a major regional power, a net importer of energy, and a nation with expanding global ambition—cannot afford to merely observe from the sidelines. The combined economic and diplomatic fallout from this conflict could quietly push India into a corner—unless it acts with strategic foresight and renewed clarity.

The war's immediate shockwaves—rising oil prices, disrupted supply chains, and overarching geopolitical instability—can potentially cost us if we continue our policy of backseat diplomacy. Brent crude is edging past $90 a barrel, bloating our import bill and weakening the rupee. Inflationary pressures are mounting across sectors like aviation, manufacturing, fertilizers, and consumer goods. These are not just by-products of external developments; they are symptoms of India being behind the diplomatic curve.

The crisis also threatens India's trade arteries. Key maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are increasingly insecure, vulnerable to attacks or blockades. This instability will not just escalate shipping costs or insurance premiums, but also blunt India's export momentum to Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. Our growth story—built on global integration, trade agility, and a competitive manufacturing base—is under direct threat. And the silence from our corridors of power on this mounting challenge can be troubling.