SA's fuel gamble: Empty reserve tanks, but international risk is rising

Global tensions are rising, and SA's energy safety net is thinner than it should be

- Maarten van Doesburgh

South Africa still has significant storage capacity, particularly at Saldanha Bay. The infrastructure exists; what is missing is the stockpile.

South Africans have been reassured this week that there is no immediate fuel shortage. Government has moved quickly to attempt to calm nerves, confirming that supply for March and early April has already been secured and that the system, for now, remains stable - as per the government media statement of March 18.

That reassurance is important but it should not distract from a far more uncomfortable truth: South Africa's energy security is far thinner than it appears.

At the heart of the issue lies a structural vulnerability that has been building for years.

South Africa holds strategic fuel reserves estimated at roughly 7.7 million barrels - the equivalent of just two to three weeks of supply. By global standards, where many countries aim for at least 90 days of cover, this is alarmingly low.

The concern is not that the country is about to run out of fuel tomorrow. It is that South Africa has very little buffer if something goes wrong.

And right now, a great deal could go wrong

A world on edge: The Strait of Hormuz

Global oil markets are once again being shaped by geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East.

Currently, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints - have intensified significantly.

Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through this narrow shipping route. Any disruption, whether through military escalation or restricted passage, has immediate and severe implications for global supply and pricing.

Markets have responded accordingly. Brent crude has surged above $100 per barrel, driven not only by actual supply constraints but by fear - the single most powerful force in commodity markets.