WARMING WILL CUT YIELD OF STAPLE CROPS EVEN POST-ADAPTATION: STUDY

While studies of this kind are a dime a dozen, this specific one, appearing in Nature, is unique in that it accounts for producer adaptation

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For every 1° C rise in average temperature worldwide, the per person availability of calories will fall 4% of what's recommended by 2100. Most major staple crops, including rice, wheat, sorghum, maize, and soybean, will see diminished yields by 2050 as well as 2100. Wheat yield in northern India could be severely affected whereas rice yield in India less so.

These findings are part of a modelling study assessing the impact of rising temperatures on global food production. While such studies are a dime a dozen, this specific study, appearing in Nature, is unique in that it accounts for producer adaptation. This means being able to fit into a mathematical model how farmers and those connected with agriculture around the world implement measures to adapt to rising temperature, such as by choosing heat-resistant varieties, altering the timing of sowing, and tweaking the times the crops are watered. Accounting for such practices, the authors say, offers a more “realistic” picture of the impact of warming on crop yield.