US TARIFF-LED RISKS PERSIST FOR INDIA

The Indian economy stumbled in August, hit by the US's additional 25% tariffs on top of the 25% reciprocal levy, as external risks weighed on domestic momentum through a weakening rupee, continued selling by foreign investors, sliding stock market and slowing exports.

- BY PAYAL BHATTACHARYA & MANJUL PAUL

Global trends, particularly the trade uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariffs, continued to weigh on sentiments. However, the intensity of those jitters has eased in September and October so far. But the worst may not be over yet. Even as the economy is expected to hold well, benefiting from the goods and services tax (GST) revamp, loss of export competitiveness to other Asian emerging markets and a steep valuation premium remain key concerns.

RUPEE ROUT

THE INDIAN rupee has become the worst-performing Asian currency this year, particularly in August, when additional tariffs eroded India's trade advantage among its emerging market peers. This prompted a 1.6% month-on-month depreciation against the US dollar in August, while the central bank intervention helped reduce volatility. Data shows that the magnitude of the decline was nearly half, at around 0.8% in September, and even smaller at 0.4% in the first few days of October.

While the RBI holds a $700-billion forex buffer to support the rupee, the focus would be on reducing volatility. "India's relative loss of export competitiveness vs EM Asia, amid higher tariffs, and especially now with services coming in the trade war ambit, would, in principle, warrant some adjustment via a weaker currency," Emkay Global said in a note.