Street Crystal Ball Hints at Volatile Days Ahead

However, Indian markets may stand out in a bleak global landscape

- Abhinaba Saha & Mayur Bhalerao

Turbulence over Trump tariffs and the terror strike in Kashmir have darkened the mood for Indian investors buffeted by months of volatility, leaving them scrambling for answers: Does the road get rockier in the next three months? Are there any signs of comfort at all? What happens to initial public offerings (IPOs) after last year's frenzy? And will gold outperform equities again this year, after 2024?

To gauge the market's pulse, we surveyed 30 investment professionals—analysts, economists, research heads, and fund managers—between 22 and 30 April. Their verdict: There is no escape from volatility, but in a bleak global setting, India might emerge as a bright spot.

This is the third in a new Mint series of quarterly market surveys, the first of which was held ahead of Diwali in October 2024 and the second in February after the Union Budget.

Most experts (77%) think that Indian investors should brace for moderate to moderately high levels of volatility in the next three months. However, 20% anticipate uncertainty will be high going forward.

Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president of research at Religare Broking noted that President Trump's "policy flip-flops", along with unpredictable reactions from other countries, are likely to inject a fresh wave of uncertainty as the 90-day tariff reprieve ends on 2 July.

Even though India is not in tariff crossfire between the US and China, it is not immune to the secondary effects that are likely to rise from broader global disruptions. Hence, most experts expect increased fluctuations and increased short-term capital movements in the near term.

However, Jay Kothari, lead equity strategist at DSP Mutual Fund feels that historically, bouts of volatility have often offered the most opportune moments for long-term investments as prices tend to be lucrative during uncertain times.