One cannot count on waking up early to achieve success in life

Deterministic assertions may attract us, but, as with equity returns, it's complex probabilities that determine real outcomes

- SWANAND KELKAR

We are in the midst of a cult phenomenon of waking up early and crushing your day. Successful CEOs and professional athletes espouse it, podcasters are wide-eyed about their morning routines, influencers sell courses on how to do it, and self-help section in bookstores are full of hacks on how to wake up early. The often unsaid but generally well understood belief is that waking up early will make you successful in life.

Humans love stories, especially linear, straightforward ones where A leads to B. There is no ambiguity here, as the chain of events is watertight. Reality is different, though, and every time I hear a 'A leads to B' statement, I am reminded of a Michael Lewis quote: "Man is a deterministic device thrown in a probabilistic universe."

Back to our early risers. We nod when we hear, "Waking up early is key to success." Linear story: A leads to B. It appeals to our intuitive sense, and we lap it up. But whenever one hears such deterministic statements, it is useful to put on a probabilistic hat. Instead of thinking of a straight line, one should think of a probability distribution; even a pie chart will do. The question to ask in such situations is, "What percentage of A leads to B?" and "What percentage of B is caused by A?"