India's forecast window is narrowing

Economic Survey 2024-25 warned that heat and water stress could affect crop yields, threatening food security in India

- Vijay C. Roy & Utpal Bhaskar

Climate change is making it harder to forecast India's weather with the same lead time, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

"If I could earlier predict heavy rainfall three days in advance, now I may only be able to forecast it one-and-a-half days ahead. That's the impact climate change is having on our systems," he said.

The frequency, intensity and length of heatwaves have risen in the 'heat-core zones' in north and central India. At the same time, central and peninsular India is seeing more heavy rainfall events, and lightning and thunderstorms have become more frequent in eastern and northeastern states.

These shifts carry widespread consequences.