How Ozempic's Maker Lost Its Grip on the Obesity Market It Created

Novo Nordisk underestimated weight-loss drug demand, and shortages let rivals in the door

- Peter Loftus & Noemie Bisserbe

In 2023, Novo Nordisk was the most valuable company in Europe, surpassing LVMH on the back of soaring demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Today, the Danish company has lost its grip on the anti-obesity market it carved out.

The company has lost market share amid production missteps and a bungled rollout of Wegovy that led to shortages. Its U.S. rival Eli Lilly—initially in the rearview mirror—has been proven to have a more effective weight-loss drug and a more promising pipeline of next-generation treatments. Novo Nordisk's research and development machine has disappointed, and a key marketing strategy was slow to get off the ground.

Novo Nordisk's ability to stay atop a market that analysts see growing to $150 billion in annual sales is now in doubt. Its controlling shareholder this month forced a surprise ouster of the company's chief executive, Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen. And while it is still generating multibillion-dollar sales for Ozempic and Wegovy, shares have tumbled more than 50% over the past year.

If Novo Nordisk doesn't turn things around, it could join a long list of companies that blew a first-mover advantage, from Sunshine Biscuits—whose Hydrox cookies were overtaken by now-iconic Oreos—to the MySpace social network.

"Everyone wants to be the first footprints on the empty beach," said Americus Reed, marketing professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. "But it depends on how you land on that first move. The second mover is watching them make mistakes. You're able to identify those and not make those mistakes."

A Novo Nordisk spokeswoman said the company remains the global-volume market leader in GLP-1 drugs, serving nearly two-thirds of patients taking them for diabetes and obesity.