Bright outlook for India despite global challenges, says FinMin

India's economic outlook remains bright thanks to strong fundamentals, higher private consumption and increased investment demand, the finance ministry said, while pointing to the risks from higher crude prices due to the war in West Asia, a flood of US treasury bonds, and the US monetary policy squeeze.

- Rhik Kundu

Brent crude futures that traded around $85 a barrel a year ago stood at $91.92 on Monday evening, down 0.26% from the previous day, after diplomatic efforts were stepped up to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

"There are imminent fears of rising crude oil prices in H2 FY24, given that the average price during Q2FY24 ($86.8 per barrel) was higher than QIFY24 ($77.9/) and ongoing speculation and wait-and-watch situation emerging from the recent geopolitical situation in the Middle East," the finance ministry's economic review for September said.

Meanwhile, interest rates in the US are expected to stay high for a longer period as the central bank tries to get inflation back to its 2% target. Higher interest rates in the US hurt emerging markets, raising the cost of borrowing and depressing demand.