An early Halloween? Trade scares seem set to intensify

The world faces trick-or-treat uncertainty as supply chains get warped by Trump's tariff aggression

- RAHUL JACOB

There is no place better than the Canton trade fair to get a sense of the direction of global trade. Across 1.6 million square meters, Chinese suppliers set up stalls and take enquiries and orders from retailers and businesspeople from all over the world. The fair in China's southernmost province of Guangdong started on 15 April with electronic goods and household appliances. It is now in its second phase, which includes homeware and kitchen supplies, watches and garden equipment. Phase 3 begins on 1 May and will run the gamut from clothing to carpets, furs to toys. More than a decade ago, writing about its October edition, when buyers from the West throng its halls hoping to stock up ahead of Christmas, I likened it to chancing upon an army of Santa Claus's helpers and discovering they were nearly all Chinese.

This year, though, set against the backdrop of Trump tariffs, all is change. Business deals for Chinese suppliers are expected to plummet. The government organizers have gone so far as to send exhibitors warnings that there will be inspections at the end of each phase to deter pessimistic sellers from shutting stalls early.